Neighbors at Risk

Shooting incidents reported in each New York City census block group were divided over the population to create yearly rates of shooting incidents. Researchers then ranked all CBGs based on their rates of shooting incidents and identified the 50 CBGs with the highest rates in each year from 2015 to 2021.

Shooting Surge Continuing to Slow Across New York City

Shooting trends in New York City remain a serious concern, but recent quarter-specific, one-year differences declined for three straight quarters from October 2020 through June 2021.

Reducing Gun Violence in New York City

Causal relationships are difficult to identify in complex and multi-part initiatives, but New York City’s falling rate of gun violence suggests that recent community initiatives may have helped to sustain previous gains.

Easily Overstated

Policymakers, advocates, and even some researchers claim that youth confinement rates across the United States dropped in recent years due to changes in policy and practice. Such claims remain unproven, but voters and elected officials are inclined to accept them as factual because they are offered by reputable agencies and repeated in news media sources. Without reliable evidence, however, the notion that state-level youth confinement rates fall primarily in response to progressive policy reforms is merely appealing rhetoric.

Older Adults Responsible for Total Growth in Drug Arrests

The entire increase in drug crime arrests during the past decade was due to growing numbers of arrests involving adults ages 25 and older. Youth under age 18 and even young adults under age 25 were far less likely to be arrested for drug crimes in 2018 than any time in the past two decades.

Youth Still Leading Violent Crime Drop: 1988-2018

Based on the latest statistics compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the national violent crime arrest rate declined 38 percent overall between 1988 and 2018, but the steepest declines were observed among youth ages 10 to 14 (–53%) and 15 to 17 (–54%). The arrest rate for 18-20 year-olds dropped 47 percent while the arrest rates for adults ages 21-24 and 25-49 declined 42 percent and 23 percent, respectively.

Young Men in Neighborhoods with Cure Violence Programs Adopt Attitudes Less Supportive of Violence

New York City neighborhoods operating Cure Violence programs show stronger declines in violence-endorsing attitudes than do areas without Cure Violence programs.

Violent Crime Rates in U.S. Cities with Populations over 500,000: 1985-2015

Data Source: Violent crimes reported to the Uniform Crime Reports program, Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Department of Justice, as prepared by the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data and disseminated by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Washington, DC (www.ucrdatatool.gov) for 1985-2012 as well as data obtained directly from FBI reports for 2013, 2014 and [...]

All You Need to Know About Crime Trends, in 60 Seconds

Every year, when the FBI releases the new crime data from the Uniform Crime Reports, we see media stories and policymakers commenting on the meaning of small, year-to-year changes. They should heed this video from Norway, which was designed to explain trends in climate change. It is just as relevant for understanding crime trends. Stop [...]

Trends in American Youth Crime

Jeffrey A. Butts and Daniel P. Mears (2011). Trends in American Youth Crime. In Juvenile Delinquency and Juvenile Justice, David W. Springer and Albert R. Roberts (Editors). Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc. This chapter answers two deceptively simple questions, “How much juvenile crime is there today?” and “How does the level of juvenile crime today [...]