Shooting trends in New York City remain a serious concern, but recent quarter-specific, one-year differences declined for three straight quarters from October 2020 through June 2021.
Shooting Surge Continuing to Slow Across New York City
Category: Crime Data Analysis
Reducing Gun Violence in New York City
Causal relationships are difficult to identify in complex and multi-part initiatives, but New York City’s falling rate of gun violence suggests that recent community initiatives may have helped to sustain previous gains.
Easily Overstated
Policymakers, advocates, and even some researchers claim that youth confinement rates across the United States dropped in recent years due to changes in policy and practice. Such claims remain unproven, but voters and elected officials are inclined to accept them as factual because they are offered by reputable agencies and repeated in news media sources. Without reliable evidence, however, the notion that state-level youth confinement rates fall primarily in response to progressive policy reforms is merely appealing rhetoric.
Older Adults Responsible for Total Growth in Drug Arrests
The entire increase in drug crime arrests during the past decade was due to growing numbers of arrests involving adults ages 25 and older. Youth under age 18 and even young adults under age 25 were far less likely to be arrested for drug crimes in 2018 than any time in the past two decades.
Youth Still Leading Violent Crime Drop: 1988-2018
Based on the latest statistics compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the national violent crime arrest rate declined 38 percent overall between 1988 and 2018, but the steepest declines were observed among youth ages 10 to 14 (–53%) and 15 to 17 (–54%). The arrest rate for 18-20 year-olds dropped 47 percent while the arrest rates for adults ages 21-24 and 25-49 declined 42 percent and 23 percent, respectively.
Mixed News About Youth Violence in Recent FBI Crime Data
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting series tracks violent crime trends using the four offenses of murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. According to the FBI, youth arrests for these offenses grew one percent between 2016 and 2017.
Total Youth Arrests for Violent Crime Still Falling Nationwide
The U.S. juvenile arrest rate for homicide rate grew 4 percent between 2014 and 2015 but remained 70 percent lower than the 1990s peak.
Murders and Robberies in New York City: January-September 2015
Sheyla Delgado and Laila Alsabahi Research & Evaluation Center March 15, 2016 With funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) and the New York City Council, the Research & Evaluation Center at John Jay College is evaluating the Cure Violence model of violence reduction. The Cure Violence model is inspired by the public health approach to [...]
Violent Crime Rates in U.S. Cities with Populations over 500,000: 1985-2015
Data Source: Violent crimes reported to the Uniform Crime Reports program, Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Department of Justice, as prepared by the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data and disseminated by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Washington, DC (www.ucrdatatool.gov) for 1985-2012 as well as data obtained directly from FBI reports for 2013, 2014 and [...]
Los Angeles, Portland, and Dallas are Top Cities for Violent Crime Drop
See: Cities ranked by percentage decline in violent crime rate Homicide numbers in each city over 500K Homicide rates in each city over 500K Violent crime rates in each city over 500K