Building the CVI evidence base for the future will require theoretically informed, intentionally causal evaluation studies.
Building the CVI evidence base for the future will require theoretically informed, intentionally causal evaluation studies.
Jeffrey Butts, a professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, in New York City, told me, “If you wanted to go after cities that were in trouble and experiencing increases in homicide, for example, you would go to Little Rock…”
Public officials may point to “juvenile” crime when responding to public concerns about community safety. Recent statements by federal officials echo the political rhetoric of the 1990s when politicians across the country blamed young people for what were actually generalized increases in crime.
“In Midtown, and in most of Manhattan, your chances of being harmed personally by crime are quite low,” said Jeffrey A. Butts, director of the Research and Evaluation Center at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice. “The people most at risk are in the disadvantaged, economically excluded neighborhoods.”
It does not appear to be accurate to attribute recent increases in violent crime to the State law known as “Raise the Age.”
Violent index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) generally declined statewide between 2010 and 2020 before surging with the onset of the social and economic disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The surge was limited to New York City and its suburbs.