Public officials may point to “juvenile” crime when responding to public concerns about community safety. Recent statements by federal officials echo the political rhetoric of the 1990s when politicians across the country blamed young people for what were actually generalized increases in crime.
Despite various shortcomings, the research team found important indicators that suggest positive benefits of the State initiatives to prevent crime and violence. When researchers analyzed violent and property index crimes (i.e., aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, and larceny), the change in crime occurrences sometimes varied by the amount of funding received. Using 2010 as the base year and tracking crime rates through 2023, researchers found that total index crimes dropped 14 percent in counties receiving funding, but index crimes grew 13 percent in counties that received no funding for the three main initiatives.
Violent index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) generally declined statewide between 2010 and 2020 before surging with the onset of the social and economic disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The surge was limited to New York City and its suburbs.
Violent arrests among New Yorkers under age 18 surged after 2020, most likely for the same reasons as adults.
“Robbery statistics depend on citizen reporting,” said Jeffrey Butts, director of the Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
Jeffrey Butts, director of the Research and Evaluation Center at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said that there was no discernible migrant crime wave. “I would interpret a ‘wave’ to mean something significant, meaningful, and a departure from the norm,” he said. “So far, what we have are individual incidents of crime.”
